JUNE 30, 1997 VOL.149 NO.26

ASIA/ECONOMIC FORECAST

READY FOR ANYTHING
A new TIME/CNN poll finds Hong Kong's people are upbeat, independent-minded and staying put

How confident are Hong Kongers about their future? Plenty, according to a TIME/CNN poll conducted two weeks before the handover. Nearly two-thirds of respondents think reunification will be good for Hong Kong, while only 10% don't. A solid majority believes China will keep its promise to maintain the territory's separate political and economic systems. But there are concerns: residents worry more about corruption and immigration than they do about restrictions on the press or Chinese meddling. Nonetheless, half of those polled think it's important they be allowed to gather in memory of the Tiananmen Square victims. And the soon-to-be-abolished legislature is considered legitimate by twice as many people as its Beijing-selected replacement. As for future Chief Executive C.H. Tung, a greater number of respondents believe he represents Beijing's interests, rather than Hong Kong's. Despite such subversive impulses, seven of ten Hong Kongers say they'll stay put even if problems arise. Their faith rests less in China's generosity than in its possible evolution: more than three times as many people think the mainland will become more like Hong Kong than the reverse. Excerpts:

Do you think reunification will be good or bad for Hong Kong?
Good 63%
Bad 10%
Not sure 27%

Will life for you and your family get better or worse after reunification?
Better 29%
Worse 18%

Which one of the following issues worries you the most?
Immigration from China 18%
Corruption 18%
Crime 14%
Reduced personal freedoms 13%
Curbs on press freedom 8%
Chinese government interfering with Hong Kong's economic system 7%
Chinese government interfering with Hong Kong's political system 7%

Do you have a favorable impression of the following leaders?
Anson Chan 74%
C.H. Tung 59%
Martin Lee 46%
Jiang Zemin 44%

Is it better for Hong Kong:
To emphasize social order like C.H. Tung is doing? 50%
To emphasize democracy like Martin Lee is doing? 24%

Whose interests does C.H. Tung represent?
Beijing's 39%
Hong Kong's 34%

Which body has more legitimacy?
Legislative Council 48%
Provisional Legislature 22%
Other/Not Sure 30%

Will China keep its promise to maintain Hong Kong's autonomy for 50 years?
Yes 61%
No 30%

In the next 25 years, will:
China become more like Hong Kong is now? 54%
Hong Kong become more like China is now? 17%
Other/Not sure 29%

Is it important for people in Hong Kong to be able to have public gatherings to commemorate June 4?
Yes 52%
No 38%

Is a Tiananmen-type confrontation likely in Hong Kong in the next five years?
Yes 8%
No 81%

If serious problems arose after the hand-over, would you try to leave Hong Kong?
Yes 25%
No 70%

What would make you try to leave?
Serious economic downturn 36%
Tiananmen-type incident in Hong Kong 36%
Serious rise in corruption 25%
Political dissenters jailed 12%

Are you able to leave Hong Kong if you wanted to?
Yes 37%
No 53%

Based on a telephone survey by Yankelovich Partners of 800 adult Hong Kong residents conducted June 13-17. Margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.5%.

time-webmaster@pathfinder.com